TURF CLASSIC (R6 BEL, 3:22 ET)
I’m going to treat this race as a “speed round” because my opinion, I’m afraid, isn’t very interesting.
#1 CAPE BLANCO is going to take all the beating. I don’t have anything too clever about him; he’s just thrashed everything he’s faces on our shores, he acts on all ground, and he need only run a rough approximation of his previous races to land in the winner’s circle once again. He’s clearly suited to American racing and it will take a top class effort from a fellow European do dethrone him in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. A deserving odds on shot at 4 to 5.
#2 TEAKS NORTH is a cool horse and a G1 winner but appears well behind Cape Blanco according to all of the relevant gauges. It’s also probably notable that he ran his worst race on Belmont turf with cut in the ground in the fall. 20-1.
Technically speaking, #3 DEAN’S KITTEN has less than 3 lengths to find to Cape Blanco, though DK’s race last time had the look of a perfect trip/peak effort to the point where it’s tricky to see where those three lengths are going to come from. But I like they he improved on softer ground and the form of that race, the Arlington Million, is working out very well. This guy might get completely overlooked. I don’t like him to reverse form with Blanco but if you’re an exacta player, he is definite use for second. You know his new rider, Ramon Dominguez, will give him a chance. 15-1.
The best race of #4 MISSION APPROVED’s life came under similiar conditions — 10 furlongs at Belmont on soft turf. I’ve written before about my move of With Approval’s frontrunning on soft turf and MA will try and make that angle work again today. A few concerns abound: June soft isn’t October soft so the ground is still a question. And several of these are tactical enough that he may have company whenever the real running starts. He’s a longshot but could certainly hang around for a piece. That June race beats all of these except Blanco, though I suspect it was a one time thing. 25-1.
#5 WINCHESTER seems overlooked for a three-time, three-time, three-time Grade 1 winner (including this race last year), but there are valid reasons for that — he’s never run a race that’s impressed me as much as Cape Blanco’s best work. At his ML price of 2s, the value in the race might lie in playing against him in the exacta slots, but he’s still an obvious contender based on his class and form, if not on the advanced speed metrics. 4-1.
#6 GRASSY looks another on the bubble of what I’d call true contendership (if that’s even a word). He’s yet to find Grade 1 success but he hasn’t been too far off it. I like that he’s prevailed in boggy conditions before, in last year’s Red Smith, the last turf stake of the year in New York. 10-1.
STRATEGY: If anything, as I look over my numbers, the 4 to 5 might be too high on Blanco, who has the look of another possible free square in your Pick Whatevers. I’m not a big exacta player but I could see playing Dean’s Kitten small beneath him, though if I play exactas, they will be almost entirely a function of trying to find overlays on my line based on the probable pays.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 