FLOWER BOWL PREVIEW

FLOWER BOWL (R5 BEL, 2:47 ET)

#1 DELUXE is a contender. She’s got my girl Aruna on the book from back in the day in France, though Aruna has improved mightily since then. Deluxe ran very well in her stateside debut, in a race where it was expected the distance would be too short for her. The intention was to prep her at Saratoga and then stretch her out, “I think the distance itself will move her forward,” trainer Bill Mott told Dave Grening of the Daily Racing Form. She is out of one of the most famous broodmares in the history of the world (Hasili, whose progeny include Dansili, Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Cacique, and Champs Elysees), and her best form isn’t too far off what it would take to win this. But she still has something to prove. 6-1.

Pace players might be licking their chops to bet #2 DYNASLEW, who trips out to be loose as a goose in this spot. Of course, that was pretty much the case on closing day at SAR and Emerald Beech still pegged her back. I understand the case for her but think she’s wanting in terms of figures and form at the Grade 1 level. 12-1.

#3 EMERALD BEECH has definitely improved in her last two with a little cut in the ground, a situation she should have once again today. This is another big step up for her, however, and my inclination is to believe the 4-race win streak stops here. 10-1.

Long time blog readers know I love #4 ARUNA, who bailed out the blog bankroll plays at Saratoga ‘10. I believe she was unlucky not to win the Diana, where Zagora just got the jump on her. The big question today is how will the added distance suit her? It’s tricky. In her last two she’s shaped like longer would suit, and Graham Motion is a master of getting the best out of his charges when stretching them out. But the pedigree and European form don’t necessarily scream ten panels. The expected boggy ground provides another potential wrench in the works. But she’s still a major contender. Call her 5/1.

#5 GITCHEE GOOMIE looks up against it and an unlikely stayer, but on the plus side, she just put “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” in my head. 50/1.

For #6 DISTORTED LEGACY, take a look at my comment on Gitchee Goomie and subtract the part about “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.” 40/1.

#7 SENADA is the Queen of the Nibblers. If I ever take the time to calculate how much money I’ve lost backing this gorgeous filly, I might weep. At this point it’s likely to be roughly the equivalent of a nice sofa or a bad used car, either of which I could use. In truth, she has had a lot of excuses, but at the end of the day she just doesn’t seem fast enough. I wouldn’t rule her out for underneath, how could you? (1 for 15 overall but 11 of 15 ITM). 30-1.

#8 STACELITA is your most likely winner. But you don’t need me to tell you that. She’s the fastest horse in the race with the best form. The lasix and rider switch seemed to propel her back to her best Euro form (which was ahead of Deluxe’s to begin with), and another move forward would be no surprise at all. Evs.
STRATEGY: Maybe start some horizontal exotics with #8 STACELITA, and back her if she’s any price. Meanwhile, you knew this was coming: