This is just a quick and dirty version but should help you get started. It is set up for a 20 horse field but can be adjusted for lower according the instructions on the sheet.
Have a look and hit me up via Twitter (@loomsboldly) if you have any questions or problems.
And here is an improved version of the sheet courtesy of Ryan Coli (@C_ryran):
If you’re curious about the Opening Lines for the NHC Future Wager at Treasure Island, check out this PDF:
2014 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge
Unofficial Standings on Day 1 After Race 10**
Name Score NHC
1 Ming Meyer $28,397.00
2 Michael Reyes $24,820.00
3 Chris Savage $24,100.80
4 Jeff Komins $19,160.00
5 Robert Traynor $18,976.00
6 George Chute $17,227.40
7 David Ingordo $16,650.00
8 Francis Drew $16,085.00
9 Dick Jerardi $15,615.00
10 William Sadoo $14,920.00
11 Greg Bone $14,430.40
12 Linda Spears $14,120.00
13 Curtis Meyer $13,950.60
14 James Henry $13,500.00
15 Ed Briggs $12,881.50
16 Craig Kaufman $12,855.45 *
17 Michael Pirrung $12,425.00
18 Bill Shurman $12,418.00 *
19 Paul Shurman $12,200.50
20 Jose Raphael $12,109.00
21 Charles Davis $12,031.50
22 Jack Dougherty $11,800.00
23 Ross Silver $11,760.00
24 Michael Beychok $11,609.70
25 Allan Sadler $11,580.00
26 Dan Real $11,500.50
27 Wendy Long $10,764.50
28 Richard Christiano $10,341.60
29 Gaylord Grundy $10,245.00
30 Robert Wicklein $10,199.00
31 Jerry Brown $10,162.00
32 Joseph Johnson $9,953.50
33 George Howard $9,840.50
34 Kevin Martin $9,807.00
35 Nick Cosato $9,700.00
35 Diana Thompson $9,700.00
37 Jeff Call $9,677.50
38 Tom Noone $9,592.00
39 Nick Alpino $9,545.00
40 Angelo Partipelo $9,540.00
41 Bill Wilbur $9,500.00 *
42 Christopher Larmey $9,373.50
43 Bryan Carney $9,350.00
44 John Kolodzej $9,326.55
45 Don Beardsworth $9,100.80
46 Kathy Collins $9,030.00
47 Robert Matthews $8,830.00
48 John Holmes $8,803.50
49 Ronald Carruccio $8,778.00
50 Alex Mangubat $8,750.00
51 John Hewitt $8,740.40
52 Anthony Acierno $8,730.00
53 John Conte $8,714.00
54 William Pastina $8,662.50
55 Thomas Coleman $8,659.00
56 Terry Jerge $8,640.00
57 Bill Chenvert $8,555.00
58 Ilan Cuellar $8,500.00
59 Ed Abel $8,470.00
60 Bradley Graham $8,334.00 *
61 James Staub $8,320.00
62 Pete Sluis $8,306.00
63 Anthony Pepe $8,260.00
64 Robert Mcintyre $8,218.00
65 Karen Casey $8,209.00
66 James Simpson $8,110.00
67 Louis Filoso $8,103.00
68 Benjamin Beychok $7,946.00
69 John Kwan $7,934.00
70 Randy Scholz $7,761.30
71 Edward Louis $7,755.00
72 Michael Stich $7,750.90
73 Robert Hansan $7,631.50
74 Kenny Mayne $7,600.00
74 Brett Wiener $7,600.00 *
76 Gordon D’Angelo $7,550.00
77 Kevin Mclntyre $7,530.00
77 Jill Himes $7,530.00
79 Scott Carson $7,505.40
80 Mike Elsass $7,500.00
80 Ron Geary $7,500.00
80 Brian Costello $7,500.00
83 Patrick McGoey $7,495.80
84 Gary Johnson $7,470.00
85 Robert Difusco $7,418.00
86 Greg Worker $7,401.00
87 Sally Goodall $7,342.10 *
88 Don Allen $7,301.40
89 Henry Wessel $7,300.90
89 Richard Friedman $7,300.90
91 Gunther Blankenship $7,146.50
92 Jeff Edwards $7,131.90
93 Anthony Kite $7,092.00 *
94 Greg Gass $7,060.00
95 Frank McGoey $7,036.40
96 Linda Rodriguez $7,025.00
97 Charlie Runion $7,020.00
97 Ken Hopkins $7,020.00
99 Jose Arias $7,015.00
100 Robert Crowe $7,009.50
101 Conrad Hoetger $6,887.00
102 Ray Arsenault $6,865.00
103 Michael Birenbaum $6,804.00
104 Shawn Turner $6,800.00
105 Edward Deicke $6,797.10
106 Tommy Massis $6,790.00
107 Dan Kovalesky $6,750.00
108 Allan Schaffer $6,675.00
109 Mark Callahan $6,670.00
110 Mark Myrick $6,649.50
111 Lee Searing $6,649.00
112 Mike Ferrozzo $6,628.90 *
113 Chris Podratz $6,613.00
114 Michael Doheny $6,585.00
115 James Atwell $6,567.70
116 Jim Means $6,555.00
117 Kevin Cox $6,540.00
118 Maury Joffe $6,490.00
119 Jim Hom $6,480.00
120 David Snyder $6,447.60
121 Steven Nemetz $6,441.30 *
122 Gary Flynn $6,433.45
123 Matt Bernier $6,367.00
124 David McCarty $6,295.00
125 Kevin McFarland $6,260.00
126 Chuck White $6,255.00
127 Alan Hoffman $6,200.00
128 Pual Link $6,176.50
129 Daniel Slattery $6,176.00
130 Greg Scicchitano $6,125.00
131 Lawrence Kahlden $6,097.00
132 Dennis Decauwer $6,070.00 *
133 Bruno DeJulio $6,010.00
134 Paul Weizer $6,000.00
134 Paul Scott $6,000.00
134 Mark Stanton $6,000.00
137 Steve Mercierca $5,970.30
138 Eugene Cahalan $5,963.60
139 Peter Freundlich $5,951.90
140 Louis Constan $5,927.40
141 David Snead $5,912.20 *
142 William Zvara $5,907.50
143 Julie Toven $5,889.00
144 Cara Yarusso $5,887.00
145 Anthony Montanino $5,865.50
146 James House $5,860.00
147 Bob Graham $5,855.00
148 Mchael Rosen $5,785.00
149 Mike Mclntyre $5,775.20
150 Jim Settle $5,753.30
151 Joji Mangubat $5,750.00
152 Kirk Morrison $5,730.00
153 Steven Turner $5,680.00
154 Sean Nolan $5,668.00 *
155 Gary Lyons $5,618.90
156 Jeffrey Schmitz $5,602.00
157 John Doyle $5,590.00
158 Don Speaks $5,555.00
159 Kenny Hunt $5,542.00
160 Steve Mootoo $5,532.00
161 Todd Urbina $5,468.50
162 Wyatt Rosette $5,375.00
163 Howard Barish $5,325.00
164 Durwood Ashcroft $5,320.90
165 Ed Robinson $5,252.00
166 Dan Flanigan $5,245.00 *
167 Michael Sussman $5,200.00
168 Joseph Appelbaum $5,152.50
169 Donald Healy $5,080.00
170 Michael Fisher $5,075.00
171 Jon Hurd $5,030.00
172 Dustin Moore $5,000.00
173 David Nelson $4,937.00
174 Brian Gross $4,930.50
175 Ashley Taylor $4,930.00
176 Dennis Madson $4,890.00
177 Patrick Madden $4,875.00
178 Cheryl Mcintyre $4,860.00
179 Mark Streiff $4,767.00
180 Patrick Gianforte $4,760.00 *
181 Justin Larsen $4,731.40
182 Damian Roncevich $4,720.00 *
183 David Lindo $4,719.50
184 Charley Witt $4,650.00
185 Stephen Berstein $4,642.00
186 Dennis Wellar $4,623.00
187 Jim Meeks $4,600.00
188 Charles Sailor $4,594.00
189 Les Harris $4,523.00
190 Bo Kelly $4,519.00
191 Russell Priola $4,502.00
192 John Pyles $4,500.00
192 Kenneth King $4,500.00
192 Mitch Schuman $4,500.00 *
192 Alfred Sirica $4,500.00
192 Paul Adkins $4,500.00
192 Steve Jaffe $4,500.00
192 Kenneth Jordan $4,500.00
192 Darwin Labordo $4,500.00
192 James Casey $4,500.00
192 Ron Ferrise $4,500.00
192 John Fisher $4,500.00
192 Dewey Petty $4,500.00
204 Jacqueline Sukanick $4,490.00 *
205 Blaise Brucato $4,481.00
206 Stephen Diaz $4,470.00
206 Dave Nichols $4,470.00
208 David Gutfreund $4,450.00
209 Eric Moomey $4,442.90 *
210 Tony Citarella $4,440.00
211 Joey Normand $4,399.00
212 Timothy Herboth $4,392.00
213 Jack Jenkins $4,391.00
214 Jerry Rubinstein $4,390.00
215 Carlos Rivera $4,350.00
215 Ronald Milchhoefer $4,350.00
217 Ken Seeman $4,300.00
218 Robert Rosette $4,290.00
219 Nicholas Tammaro $4,253.00
220 David Nance $4,164.70
221 Mark Haidar $4,144.00
222 Timothy Zacharias $4,070.00
223 James Metzger $4,060.00
224 Gary West $4,019.00
225 Paul Caltagirone $4,000.00
226 Anthony Grey $3,982.00
227 Hesham Ragab $3,967.50
228 Jason Avila $3,919.00
229 Brian Chenvert $3,900.00 *
230 Russell Robinson $3,844.00
231 Justin Keywood $3,718.00
232 Stephen Skaggs $3,704.80
233 Gary Crampton $3,618.00
234 Thomas Thompson $3,600.40
235 Jonathon Kinchen $3,561.30
236 Rob Lloyd $3,502.00
237 Georgia Hellmers $3,500.00
238 John Schultz $3,455.00
239 Nisan Gabbay $3,450.00
240 Ken Daniels $3,449.00
241 Stephen Thompson $3,400.00
242 Steve Leving $3,353.00
243 David Wilkenfeld $3,311.00
244 William Nefzger $3,300.00
244 Mark McGuire $3,300.00
246 Jacob Phillips $3,292.00
247 Duke Matties $3,200.00 *
248 Brian Herrity $3,130.00
249 Maria Anguiano $3,075.00
250 Mark Holmes $3,010.00
251 Garett Skiba $3,001.00
252 Mark Tabakman $3,000.00
252 Seth Morris $3,000.00
252 Chuck Grubbs $3,000.00
252 Lee Geraghty $3,000.00
256 Sarah Wiener $2,995.50
257 Jennifer Knight $2,940.00
258 Jeannie King $2,910.00
259 Seth Rosenfeld $2,880.00
260 Rich Averill $2,868.00
261 Mark Deaton $2,800.00
262 Jim Burrell $2,795.50
263 Eric Israel $2,499.50
264 Christian Hellmers $2,370.00
265 Paul Viskovich $2,340.00
266 Ron Bowden $2,300.00 *
267 Joe Pettit $2,131.25
268 Michael Gotkin $2,109.00
269 Robert Stich $2,060.00
270 Wayne Kwan $1,804.50
271 Harry Fry $1,800.00
272 Mark Evans $1,766.80
273 Michael Holland $1,764.00
274 Sean Espino $1,761.00
275 Craig Bernick $1,509.00
276 David Krammer $1,417.40
277 Russ Axelrod $960.00
278 Paul Hoffman $306.00 *
279 John Nichols $36.00
When the weather is like this, Opening Day Saratoga is not like Christmas morning – Christmas morning sucks compared to this. . .
Things are going to look a little different around here this summer. As many of you know, I am now a full-time employee of Daily Racing Form, covering the contest beat for the paper of record. I shudder to shutter this blog, however, so it will remain extant: I still may post a few pieces on here this Saratoga, and I am open to some guest bloggers coming in and showing their stuff. Contact me however you wish if you are interested.
But mainly, I’ll be writing over at DRF – please check me out there every Monday through Friday.
As for the content you used to find here, the current plan calls for me to ramp up my tweeting about the races – The Unbearable Lightness of Betting as nano blog. I will likely even still do bankroll plays via Twitter. I am very proud of the fact that in the seven seasons I’ve blogged about Saratoga (here, and via Horseplayer mag before that), I’ve produced six winning ROIs. Granted, two of those years, I got out on the last day (including last year) but hey, a winning year is a winning year. My tweets are visible on the side of this page but it’d be better still if just follow me @loomsboldly over on the Twitter.
And come say hi at the Paddock Bar (I’m NEVER calling it The Post).
Pete
You know the blog isn’t what it used it to be when I go from Breeders’ Cup to Derby Day without posting. . .but I have a good excuse I swear. And, no, I’m not blaming baby Perrin:
Perrin’s first birthday party, back in December, photographed by Ron Epstein
As many of you know, I have been writing regularly for The Daily Racing Form. And I was recently hired to be a full-time employee.
I hope you’ll join me over there regularly. Here’s what I had to say on my blog over there about the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.
And here’s a bonus feature, an excerpt from my forthcoming book (written with Chris Wertz and photographed by Max Kelly) Brooklyn Spirits, the world’s first distillery-to-glass cocktail book:
*
ONE MINT JULEP
One Mint Julep from Brooklyn Spirits, photographed by Max Kelly, styled by Louise Leonard
Kentuckian Henry Watterson famously wrote the following recipe for the mint julep.“Pluck the mint gently from its bed, just as the dew of the evening is about to form upon it. Select the choicer sprigs only, but do not rinse them. Prepare the simple syrup and measure out a half-tumbler of whiskey. Pour the whiskey into a well-frosted silver cup, throw the other ingredients away and drink the whiskey.”
This is Colin Spoelman’s kind of cocktail recipe. But even Spoelman, who has acknowledged a certain “cognitive dissonance” when it comes to making cocktails with his Kings’ County whiskies, understands the importance of having a mint julep on the first day of May. As a native Kentuckian, the Kentucky Derby is one of those annual events by which Colin measures the passage of time. Who needs New Year’s Eve when you have the most exciting two minutes in sports? Pete feels the same way and offers refers to the year he met his wife, Susan, not as 1997 but as “the year Silver Charm won the Derby.” Here is a julep recipe from Colin that gives his bourbon its due – front and center in this Kentucky classic.
silver cup
4 sprigs mint
2.5 ounces (74 mil) Kings’ CountyBourbon
crushed ice
seltzer
Frost a silver cup in your freezer. Remove the stems from 3 mint sprigs and place the leaves in the bottom of the silver cup. Add a splash of bourbon and muddle the mint. Add the rest of the bourbon, pack the cup with crushed ice, and then fill with seltzer. Garnish with the remaining mint sprig.
*
The book will be out this fall. As for the future of this blog, or the possibility of my blogging elsewhere about stuff other than racing (like local booze maybe?), it all remains to be seen. As a wise man once said, the future’s uncertain but the end is always near.
I’ll take a look at each race in terms of who I like is A-level contenders for Pick 4s and such and also mention some interesting longshots where appropriate. Click through for my At The Races analysis (and please do because it makes me look good).
Race 4: I’m loving #1 ARTEMIS ARGOTERA. Can see a longshot case for #6 CONCAVE.
Race 5: I think #1 DANK and #2 ROMANTICA have it between them.
Race 6: In the end, might try to beat #11 GROUPIE DOLL with #9 JUDY THE BEAUTY. Also have As on #5 TEDDY’S PROMISE and #8 DANCE TO BRISTOL.
Race 7: I like #14 UNBRIDLED’S NOTE, #4 RENEESGOTZIP and #13 DIMENSION.
Race 8: The favorites look super live, #13 HAVANA and #6 TAP IT RICH.
Race 9: #11 MAGICIAN might be the value. #7 THE FUGUE and #8 POINT OF ENTRY are the obvious As for me.
Race 10: Preference for #3 GENTLEMEN’S BET and #6 BAHAMIAN SQUALL. Longshot cases to be made for #11 TRINNIBERG and #12 LAUGH TRACK.
Race 11: I think #8 WISE DAN wins the race but I’ll play #5 OLYMPIC GLORY as well here.
Race 12: My As are #7 FORT LARNED and #9 GAME ON DUDE. But I’d love to be alive on some tickets covering farther reaching possibilities including #5 DECLARATION OF WAR, even #3 PLANTEUR and #1 LAST GUNFIGHTER.
Go get ’em!
Click here to read my various thoughts on thirty of the runners in the Breeders’ Cup over on the At The Races website — special thanks to Steven “Faller” Bonnick for his contributions.
I was also happy to help out Teresa Genaro with this piece over at Forbes.com. There’s also a Saturday version.
Here are a few additional thoughts:
BC Marathon: The more I look at this race, the more I keep coming back to WORLDLY and SUNS OUT GUNS OUT. As I wrote over on At the Races, I also like OLD TIME HOCKEY.
BC Juv Turf: I love this guy. (See what I did there?)
BC Dirt Mile: I’ve been looking more at BRUJO DE OLLEROS. Concerned about draw for GOLDENCENTS. I might throw in a couple of crazy longshots but don’t want to tip my hand for the #Huddie BC contest. Though I’ll post them later on.
BC Juv Turf Filles: Lots of ways to go with preference to her over her and her.
Distaff: The Champ looks strong, but will face a challenge from her. The more I think about it, the less I like this one. None of these might be the contest play.
Back tomorrow with more. . .godspeed to all humans and equines today!
An excellent card, but most of the races make little appeal as betting contests. The exceptions are below:
Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup
The question in the opening staying event is what can beat Estimate? Sir Michael Stoute’s filly is 3/3 at the track, handles the going and comes here off the back of a career best when winning the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. She lays over most of this field, but the weight for age scale – which accounts for immaturity of racehorses according to age and distance – tends to favour 3-year-olds over staying distances at this time of year, and Estimate may struggle to cope a 7lb weight concession to Aiden O’Brien’s progressive EYE OF THE STORM. This well-bred colt has some very good form both as a juvenile and this year. He has progressed following a summer break and looked a thorough stayer last time. He shouldn’t have won there, really, given he was restrained and gave away ground on good horses off a sedentary pace, but in doing so showed he was a very talented horse. A better pace here and slower ground should suit him and he looks well worth a bet at 7/1.
Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
With no confirmed front-runners in the line-up, this is likely to be a messy, tactical affair. Dalkala comes here off the back of a Group 1 win on Arc weekend, but I just don’t think she’s that good and is opposable given she looks better over 10f. Igugu, too, looks a non-stayer.
German raider Nymphea can lead and could be dangerous from the front. She’s got some solid form but might find a couple two good for her. Talent is well named, and ran well off a steady pace in the St Leger last time. A lack of pace is a worry again here, though, and this could be an opportunity for WAILA to strike at the highest level. Too free on her penultimate start, she looked an improved filly for the fitting of a hood – a pacifying and effective device designed to block out noise, currently in vogue amongst British trainers – last time out when winning by 10 lengths. She’s been off for three months, but that’s not a concern given her trainer. She’s in stall 1, should get a perfect stalking trip and will definitely stay the distance, while her breeding is particularly encouraging for soft ground.
I wanted to do a quick post to share links to an something I’m proud of — my debut piece for Don McGee’s MIXED BAG on WFUV, an interview with Mets announcer Howie Rose that includes music! I hope to be publishing a print version soon. Howie has a new book out which you can purchase here.
A word about the archive.org files. . .wordpress doesn’t seem to want to embed them but it’s really no big deal. Just click on the link, look for the player in the upper right corner, under where it says “upload,” and click play to listen.
Before I we get to my Howie Rose interview, brilliantly cut and programmed by Don Mcgee, check out this clip of Howie from back in June (plug starts at 1:43)
https://archive.org/details/Howieon50Licks
Amazing stuff. Once the Mets started the rally, I figured he’d have to drop the topic. But he kept on going. I’m forever indebted. And imagine how much my Dad would have loved that 50 Licks got mentioned in the midst of Mets game-winning rally!
OK, on to the main event. Here is part one:
https://archive.org/details/Rose101013Pt1
And here is part two:
After last year’s deeply unsatisfactory renewal – where heavy, borderline untraceable ground rendered previous form worthless and a freak result occurred – it is something of a relief that the going for the 2013 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe should allow most of the field to be seen to best effect. It is currently soft, and this should mean a good-to-soft surface come race time with no further rain forecast.
ORFEVRE looks a good place to start the analysis of this race. You may have seen the viral video of typically enthusiastic and patriotic Japanese racing fans watching this horse run in last year’s Arc, but I’ll make sure Pete puts a link in case you haven’t.
Without wanting to spoil it too much, delight turned to despair as this hugely talented horse swept down the outside, looking a certain winner, only to be run out of it close home by the unfancied Solemia. As above, that race was run on terrible ground, and ORFEVRE would have won that race on anything like an orthodox racing surface. He’s been geared towards this race since and won his trial with aplomb, beating nothing of note but barely having to come out of first gear. He is clearly very good, but has blemishes on his record and isn’t unbeatable. His trainer knows this, and has suggested the biggest threat to the horse is himself.
He is not the only raider from the Far East, and Japanese Derby winner KIZUNA matched his compatriot when winning his trial, the Prix Niel, on the same card. In my experience, Japanese trainers rarely have their horses fully fit for prep races and a good deal of improvement is likely to be forthcoming. It will be required, however, as he was fortunate to beat RULER OF THE WORLD in the Niel.
RULER OF THE WORLD is the English Derby winner and bounced right back to form last time after an abject run in the Irish Derby. The form of his win at Epsom is desperate, but the suspicion is that he was a fair bit the best there and he showed in the Niel that he has huge talent. A tactical affair that day wouldn’t have been ideal, and there may be more to come in a strongly run affair. He’s well drawn.
FLINTSHIRE was fourth in the Niel but is a likely improver for better going. Whether it will be quite fast enough for him to eek out the necessary improvement is debatable – I don’t think it will be – but look out for him if he turns up at Santa Anita in the Turf.
FLINTSHIRE is one of five runners for the genius that is Andre Fabre. PENGLAI PAVILION and PIRIKA look up against it, while OCOVANGO is held on previous form by several of today’s opponents, but INTELLO is a colt from the top drawer. He won the French Derby and was third in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, before winning his prep race in comfortable style. This will be his first try over the distance and my suspicion is that he may be a shade better over ten furlongs. Strong chance if he can stretch out, though.
AL KAZEEM has the worst of the draw, being in stall 18 of 18. He is unbeaten going right-handed in his career, having won all five times he’s run this way. Some ease in the ground is ideal for him and the return back to 12f should suit this strong galloper. He’s been below par the last twice and has had a lot of hard races this season, but both defeats came going left-handed. If the return to running anti-clockwise means he can rediscover his best form of the summer, he would have a very solid chance. His jockey is intelligent and talented, and will be a great asset in overcoming his tricky post.
TREVE looks an exceptional filly. Unbeaten in four runs, she has won two Group 1 races with ridiculous ease and now takes on the colts. She’s drawn fairly wide, but her hold up style negates concerns over her post position and she has excellent acceleration. Fillies have a good record in recent years having won three of the last five renewals, and she may be able to improve that record.
Of the outsiders, LEADING LIGHT looks as though he may outrun his price. A winner of the St Leger last time over further, he should be well placed from a low stall and keeps improving.
VERDICT: More of a race to watch and savour than bet on. Orfevre is a worthy favourite and commands huge respect, but TREVE has created a huge impression this season and may be capable of becoming the third successive winner of this race.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 