The start of the 2010 Arc (courtesy AmWest Entertainment LLC)
(ED NOTE: The Arc will be run at 10:15 ET on Sunday morning. Thanks so much to Rob Dove for taking the time to share his thoughts in this space while I’m knee deep in SuperSaturday PPs)
#1 WORKFORCE: Last year’s Derby and Arc hero has not had a great 4yo season. He was beaten in the Eclipse by So You Think over 10 furlongs and then went to the King George and was beaten by Nathaniel, the excuse mooted for that is that he got struck into on the bend and that’s why he hung across the track in the straight. Connections are also worried about the fast ground. If he comes back to last year’s Arc winning form, he can win but I’m not sold that he will and he doesn’t have the weight for age advantage this year. 10-1.
#2 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY: He possibly boiled over in the Prix Foy but his King George form makes him look not good enough to win an Arc anyway. 40-1.
#3 SILVER POND is a 100-1 shot and if that’s wrong, it’s because it’s too low.
#4 HIRUNO D’AMOUR: He’s a nice, big, good-looking colt and was a late developer, which is understandable given his size and late foaling date (May). He seems ready to peak to me, he won the Tenno Sho (G1) over 2 miles back in May but is not all stamina as he showed in the Prix Foy, settling in 3rd behind a slow pace, he quickened up well running the last 2 furlongs in just over 22 seconds despite the jockey not using the whip and Sarafina knocking him from behind. He should come on for the run plenty and the expected strong pace should suit him. Alain de Royer-Dupre said a few days ago: “I saw the horse exercise last week on Les Aigles and he impressed me greatly. He did a magnificent piece of work.” I think he’s got a great chance and we are getting big odds because he’s from Japan (underrated in European betting imo). 8-1.
#5 NAKAYAMA FESTA: Last year’s Arc runner up has clearly had plenty of problems this year and obviously needed the run badly in the Prix Foy (He finished last after setting a slow pace). I think it’s unlikely they will have him back to last year’s form but clearly has a chance if they somehow manage it. 25-1.
#6 SO YOU THINK: This horse has been hyped to the eyeballs all year and went some way to fulfilling that promise when beating Workforce in the Eclipse at Sandown in very fast time. He then went on to beat Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion stakes last time. She made him pull out all the stops, but still the time wasn’t great and the sectionals
suggested the pace was decent (and therefore the time should have been faster). He seems a strong galloper who can
sustain his pace for long periods but doesn’t have a strong turn of foot and then is lazy when he gets to the front. I’m not sure the Arc is going to suit him as he may not have the speed to get out of trouble and I’m not sure he’s as good as people rate him. 7-1.
#7 SARAFINA: She’s currently trading at 4/1 favourite with the bookies and you can see why in her form. She was unlucky in the race last year when getting badly hampered but running on well to be 3rd. Her road to the Arc this year has gone very well: she was very impressive in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (G1), being held up off a slow pace but showing a great turn of foot to get to a very useful front runner (who won his next 3 starts). In her Arc trial, the Prix Foy, she again sat at the back off a slow pace but again showed her tremendous speed, motoring the last 2 furlongs in about 22 seconds. She’s got a good chance and should love the fast ground. However, she got weight for age in last years Arc and may not be quite good enough without the weight pull, plus her running style can find trouble in a big field. 9/2.
#8 SNOW FAIRY: She seems to be improving with every start this year amd she pushed So You Think last time in the Irish Champion stakes. She has the speed and turn of foot to go well here but I think she just may find a few too good here again. 16-1.
#9 TREASURE BEACH: He was beaten a head in the Epsom derby before going on to win the Irish derby. He ran below par in the Grand prix de Paris but bounced back at Arlington last time, winning the Secretariat in good time. He’s a tough competitor and getting the weight for age allowance. He looks a big price currently at 40/1 with the bookies. I’d price him up at half that number, 20-1.
#10 MEANDRE: Andre Fabre has won the Arc with a 3yo 5 times in the last 20 years so this horse has to be respected, especially considering he was supplemented him for the race despite getting beaten in the Prix Neil. He came to the fore when winning the Grand Prix de Paris(G1) impressively from Seville in fast time; he had Reliable Man 4 1/2 lengths back that day but that rival may not have liked the fast ground and back on soft ground in the Prix Neil he reversed form with Meandre. Meandre has the ground back in his favour this time but I’m not sure the Grand prix de Paris form is quite good enough. He’ll need to improve again but he’s in the right hands to do just that. 12-1.
#11 MASKED MARVEL: He comes into this race off the back of an impressive victory in the St Leger (G1), run in course record time. This may have been aided by a strong tailwind in the back straight, but the pace was very strong, and he still ran the last 4 furlongs in 51.7 seconds (into a headwind), followed by a very strong gallop out, suggesting he can run to form again here. The worry is he improved for the step up in trip to 1m6f and may not quite have the pace to win this. 16-1.
#12 RELIABLE MAN: His trainer is very worried about the fast ground and may well pull him out if the ground dosen’t soften; his record confirms he’s not as good on fast ground so he’s hard to be with here. 20-1.
#13 SHARETA and #14 TESTOSTERONE are 100-1 shots.
#15 DANEDREAM: She has been supplemented for the race and, as a 3 yo filly, she gets a lot of weight. She won impressively last time but I think she may have been flattered due to soft ground. Can’t rule out at a big price. 25s.
#16 GALIKOVA: Goldikova’s little sister has certainly proved herself a filly with a lot of potential this year. She was very impressive on the clock in the Prix Cleopatre as she ran the last 3 furlongs quicker than Pour Moi despite a stronger pace and he went on to win the Epsom Derby on his next start. She then got beat in the French Oaks by the
very good Golden Lillac, but she apparently wasnt right there and bounced back to get her revenge in a Group 2. Her last run was in the Prix Vermeille (G1), but the time wasn’t great (even allowing for the rain inbetween the earlier trial races) considering the pace was sound. I think it was a weak race. It may be that she prefers fast ground. One worry I have is she’s a May foal and looks quite small to me. Since she’s likely to come off the pace, she could easily find trouble and is maybe one to watch out for next year if she grows up/trains on. 8-1.
Betting Strategy: I like #4 HIRUNO D’AMOUR and will be having a decent Each Way (win/place) bet; I could also see possibly making a small bet on #9 TREASURE BEACH also at huge odds.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 