It was a fairly quiet week around here, mostly just working away on the new book project, which is one I’m working on with my dad and Bernie Corbett about the 50th Anniversary of the Rolling Stones for Bloomsbury. We have a lot of cool, new research and it should be a winner. Also dealing with the ill-timed death of our old boiler. . .two weeks out of warranty. . .so that’s been a hassle but nothing I can’t handle.
Today I want to take a quick look at the River City from Churchill Downs, if only to keep in the habit of posting something on the blog at least once a week over the winter. . .so away we go. . .
#1 PLUTOMIUM appeared to move up big time in the slop last time and he also benefitted from a track that was playing kindly to speed. His turf races still place him on the periphery of contention and he is well drawn but overall, I am not excited.
#2 CHEROKEE LORD is awfully interesting. That was a nice win last time and I liked that he showed a new dimension — actually passing horses. It’s conceivable he could regresss a bit off that effort but he has other big races to run back to as well, and the dirt race two back is just a total toss. 6-1.
I’m a big fan of Michael Stidham, who trains #3 GLEAM OF HOPE, and his last three races would put him in the mix. He’s in the third race of his form cycle and ought to appreciate the added distance. 5-1.
I thought #4 BERGERAC was fortunate to win at Saratoga on a day when the turf was playing favorably to frontrunners. But he’s backed that effort up in his two subsequent starts, and will try to navigate an extra 1/16th today. Another who could lay claims but doesn’t excite me. 10-1.
I didn’t come up with #5 ZIMMER, whose previous turf form puts him a few lengths ebhind the best of these. He can’t be completely ruled out, however. 25-1.
#6 BLUES STREET looks a syandout on figures but before you go crazy taking a short price, look a bit closer. He’s been carefully spotted and he’s second time Pletcher off, back kind of quick for his new barn. Nothing against Eddie Keneally but it seems plausible that he might not know this guy as well as Pletcher did and this 7 year old could regress to the moon, if you get my double meaning. He is still a likely winner, though, if you believe in speed figures at all. 3/1.
#7 ALLIE’S EVENT has a wiseguy look, with plenty of races on wax and turf that are fast enough to win this by my reckoning. I love the fat morning line, and the big run in this race last year, where he may have moved prematurely. 4-1.
#8 TAJAWEED is another obvious contender, who like Blues Street, doesn’t have to win. His form and figures on their face would make him about 7/2 but I sense a big chance he’ll regress/be over-the-top at this time in the season.
CONCLUSION: An interesting race where I respect the faves but will likely try and beat them. Preference lies with ALLIE’S EVENT and GLEAM OF HOPE, though I might save with Cherokee Lord, Blues Street and Tajaaweed in exactas, depending on the prices.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 