FULL DIRT MILE PREVIEW

I keep hemming and hawing on #1 THE FACTOR. I wrote him up here.. 9/2.

#2 SHACKLEFORD sure has had a tough campaign, huh? I don’t think he’s fast enough or good enough and would oppose mightily at the Morning Line price. 15-1 to me.

#3 TAPIZAR is a massive downgrade for me, flow-wise, out of his last and benefitted from a bias in his other good race. Dont want him. 50-1.

#4 TRES BORRACHOS has a great name, but little chance. 50-1.

I like the improving #5 WILBURN and could see him being faster than the ones who want to run farther here, and staying better than the stretchout speed. Figures to trip out well, getting a jump on the deeper closers as well. Good spot, click here for the full write-up. 4s.

#6 IRREFUTABLE has breeding where you think he’d stay the mile but he didn’t get home in moderate company the one time he tried. Granted that was a fast pace on the turf and he likes to pass horses now. Not out of it on his best, not exciting. 10-1.

#7 JERSEY TOWN is the right kind of horse for this race, a true dirt miler. If you excuse the Kelso, run in the mud against a couple of equine freaks, his form looks better. Best race ever came running a one turn dirt mile in November, that race would blow the doors off these. Very live runner I’ve warmed to late in the process of doing this race. 8-1.

#8 CALEB’S POSSE gets profiled here. 6-1.

#9 TRAPPE SHOT also gets the ATR treatment. 9/2.

CONCLUSION: My main picks are looking like WILBURN and JERSEY TOWN, if he’s anything like his ML price. THE FACTOR is the oen I don’t know what to do with, can’t imagine I’ll let him blow up any serial exotics tickets I happen to place.