Treasure Beach wins the Irish Derby
#1 SARAH LYNX has improved throughout the year and Euro trip handicappers will upgrade her based on the horror trip from the last. Connections obviously think she’ll need the 12 furlongs of this race to show her best (as otherwise she could have gone in the 10F Taylor). She acts on all ground but doesn’t get all that much weight (and even gives 4 lbs to the 3 yos). It’s a tough assignment and she’s not out of it but I’d need a number. 20-1.
The soft is a complete unknown quantity for #2 ARCTIC COSMOS, but there’s no doubt he has some of the best form in the race in his Leger win last year. He should definitely come on for the run enough to bridge the two length gap between him and Quest for Peace. If he doesn’t like the soft but still runs well, he could be an interesting item at a price for the Breeders’ Cup Turf off his light campaign. 6-1.
The old boy, #3 MUSTKETIER ,has a few recent races that are better than they look in terms of FLOW and he’s no stranger to winning 12 F Turf stakes. However, he looks to me to be potentially overmatched at this level. He has an on-the-board chance but I make him 25-1 on the win end.
#4 SIMMARD comes off a huge run in the Northern Dancer on firm but overall looks a lot like a worse version of his stablemate Musketier to me, only with worse form on soft. 30-1.
#5 QUEST FOR PEACE has that win on the book against Arctic Cosmos from last time and is an improving three-year-old who’ll get weight once again. He’ll have to run better than he ever has to win this, which makes me not too eager to jump on at single digit odds, but he’s a contender for a trainer, Luca Cumani, who has won this race before off a similar pattern. 10-1.
#6 MORES WELLS was just a head from winning this race last year though I reckon (Nick Mordin, $1) that was an easier renewal. On the plus side, he acts on soft ground and is actually maybe in a little better form this year than he was last year. Still appears to be a longshot on the win end. 20-1.
Last year’s winner, #7 JOSHUA TREE, is back for more. I view him in a similar way to Mores Wells, despite the big difference in the MLs of those two (15s for MW, 5s for JT). He comes off a beat down at the hands of the Arc winner, Danedream, at Baden Baden, but overall I just think his form was better last year and this is a tougher race and that double makes me want to call him 15-1.
#8 CELTIC CONVICTION doesn’t look fast or classy enough. 100-1.
Another old boy, #9 RAHYSTRADA, has a bit of a wiseguy look to me. I like that he’s coming off a win at Kentucky Downs, which like Woodbine, is a more galloping configuration of a turf course, as opposed to most North American courses which favor quickening types. And looking at his Grade 1 efforts, they’re actually a bit better than they look as he had subtle trouble in both the Arlington Million and the Turf Classic. I think he’s got a chance to upset the apple cart and he should be a very square price. 8-1.
#10 REDWOOD is a course and distance winner who was unlucky in this race last year. He hasn’t won since, but he’s raced really well in terms of form and figures. He could move forward in his third race off the bench and while he’s looked a little one-paced in his last two, perhaps the softish ground will help him grind this one out. 5-1.
#11 LAUREATE CONDUCTOR was beaten less than three in the Northern Dancer but this is a much tougher spot. I have to call him 50s.
#12 MIKHAIL GLINKA ain’t what he used to be and what he used to be wasn’t good enough to win this. 100-1.
#13 TREASURE BEACH looks the tip. You can toss the Arc, where it looked to me he was just pace-setting for So You Think. I imagine that race functioned as a public workout. This is a fast horse with some of the best form in the race, including wins in the Secreatriat and Irish Derby, and an Epsom Derby 2d. Plus, he is getting weight from the other major contenders and likes it soft. I make him the most likely winner. 4-1.
#14 KARA’S ORIENTATION’s presence ensures an honest gallop. 100-1.
#15 BRONZE CANNON looks well behind the best of these in terms of figures and form. As he’s been running on wax, very tricky to assess his suitability for soft turf. I’ll make him 50-1.
CONCLUSION: I really like TREASURE BEACH in this spot. He is the top selection and a probable win bet. In terms of live longshots, consider giving RAHYSTRADA a long look, both as win saver and possible underneath key. For exotics, the other obvious ones to include are ARCTIC COSMOS, REDWOOD and QUEST FOR PEACE.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 