Rob Dove’s Champion Stakes Preview

So You Think he might vulnerable?

#1 CIRRUS DES AIGLES: A solid and consistent horse who always seems to run his race and appears to have improved this season, although this may be down to his enjoying very soft ground (won 2 Group 2s by wide margins. On his last start, he ran well but just went down to Byword who he was giving 3 pounds. He should be near the pace and has solid credentials. 7/1.

#2 GREEN DESTINY: A talented if quirky customer, I can’t see the big field (doesn’t like to be crowded) or the track suiting him and even if he handles those, he has a bit to find. 50/1.

#3 RANSOM NOTE: When the going has had firm in the description, he’s won both his starts nicely this year in fast times. He’s a the sole front runner in the race and while he has a bit to find, if the ground is fast enough and he gets a good ride from the front, he may be hard to peg back in the short straight. A very live longshot. 16/1.

#4 SO YOU THINK: This big strong Aussie superstar has not really lived up to the hype but he’s won some big races and he ran even better than it looked in the Arc. He had a wide draw there and was held up too far off the even pace (the jockey has said he chose those tactics as was unsure if SYT would get the trip), but he finished strongly. He would never have beaten Danedream but my read is that he was the 2nd best horse in the race. I expect him to be much closer to the pace today, which may be an advantage if Ransom Note slows it down. He’s quite a lazy horse who needs plenty of driving/whipping and I wonder if the new whip rules may be against him here (although I expect the jockey will break them if in a close finish). Solid chance but overbet as usual. 4/1.

#5 SRI PUTRA: He’s a quirky customer but has run well in championship races. if the pace is fast (which I’m not sure it will be), he could stay into places, but hard to see him winning. 66/1.

#6 TWICE OVER: Lost his form in the middle of the year but appeared to find it again in his last two starts coming off a slow pace at York to win and then winning again in the Judmonte International. The time in the International was very slow for the class and the sectionals don’t explain why . Await the Dawn was found to be sick after the race so he only had Midday to beat, perhaps they all ran below form? I don’t know but until he proves me wrong I’ll be betting against. 16/1.

#7 WIGMORE HALL: he was a bit unlucky in the Arlington Million (he lost his spot and had trouble), then won a soft Northern Dancer. He may struggle to get a run again here with a big field and short straight and has plenty to find in any case. 33/1.

#8 MIDDAY: I think shes got a smart turn of foot and idles when she gets to the lead, but I’m not sure she can sustain her run off a fast pace. This is her trip though and she’s got a fine race record. However, I feel she’s lacking here. 12/1.

#9 SNOW FAIRY: She seems to be improving with every start this year. She pushed So You Think in the Irish Champion stakes, looking as if she might beat him there, but he fought her off late. She then ran a blinder in the Arc, showing a good turn of foot to make ground from the back. The trip and the short straight should suit her here if she’s well positioned. 9/2.

#10 CASAMENTO: Smart 2yo who was demolished in the 2000 Guineas by Frankel. It appears to have taken him a long time to get over that race but he came back to win a moderate Group 3 in France. Bubble Chic has franked the form but little else has. He should come on for the run but has a bit to prove here. 25/1.

#11 DUBAI PRINCE: Unbeaten colt who was very impressive as a 2yo then moved to godolphin and injured. He came back to win impressively on his return, showing a great turn of foot off a slow pace. Jet Away went on to hack
up on his next start (Dubai Prince was getting 12 pounds from Jet Away that day though). He’s an unknown quantity here but it doesn’t look like the oddsmakers have taken any chances. 9/1.

#12 NATHANIEL: Missed the Arc because of fast ground and he doesn’t look like he’s going to get any cut here either. He’s quite a buzzy horse so worth watching to see if he boils over (might be more prone to bad pre-race behaviour off a layoff). He won a strange King George marred by Rewilding’s death on a day when Workforce seemingly was not at his best. The cut back in trip here does not seem likely to suit him either. I’m not a big fan of his chances. 12/1.

SUMMARY: At current prices I’m with SNOW FAIRY to win and RANSOM NOTE each way.