For Rob Dove’s analysis of the big one, the Arc, click here.
Now we’ll have from form expert Steven Bonnick on the 2 1/2 mile Cadran on the Arc undercard. Steven’s having an excellent tipping season, and stayers are his specialty, so you’ll want to hear what he has to say:
PRIX DU CADRAN, LONGCHAMP, R1, 7:10 ET
Silver Valny – apparently exposed 5-year-old who’s spent his life contesting decent grade handicaps. Missed most of this season but has returned with two career bests, winning a Deauville handicap at big odds and excelling himself when 4th in a Group 3 (behind Ley Hunter) last time. That looked a moderate contest, though, and probably going to struggle over this distance on significantly faster going.
Ley Hunter – well bred but ultimately quite disappointing performer. Narrow winner of Longchamp Group 3 last time, looking as though this trip would suit. Not won a race of significance on good ground yet, however, and quick conditions a major concern and render him pretty opposable, particularly as Andre Fabre’s horses aren’t in the best of form (have reportedly had a virus).
Celtic Celeb – leading chance on last season’s excellent form when Group 1 placed. Lost his way this season and couldn’t make the most of a soft lead at this track last time out. Couldn’t rule out return to form here but not one to be trusting with hard cash.
Kasbah Bliss – not getting any younger (9 now) and level of form showing a steady regression each season. Placed in this contest in 2009 and 2010 – this looks a weaker renewal – and conditions look fine for him this time around. Difficult to win with these days and won only 1 of his 12 starts since beaten by a short-head in this race in 2009. Fair enough run last time but likely to be towards head of market and opposable given how few horses of his age win Group 1 races.
Tres Rock Danon – solid German performer who excels on decent surface. Looked progressive when winning first two starts this season, but no better than 8th in Group 2 here carrying a penalty (difficult task at the weights). Last run was somewhat disappointing, fading after racing up with the pace (winner made most of the running). That said, has always run as though he needs an extreme stamina test and fading effort last time possibly an indication that he wasn’t quite 100% fit for that (prepping for this, most likely). Could out run his odds.
Brigantin – likes a quick surface and has abundant stamina. Ground was too soft last time, but ran well at Deauville previously. Most likely winner on form but worry thats table – same yard as Ley Hunter – are in questionable form at the moment.
Gentoo – made massive strides last season to emerge from handicaps and end up as leading stayer in France, winning this and Prix Royal Oak (Group 1). Bitterly disappointing this season, however, winless from four starts, including last time when running terribly in a Group 2 at Deauville. Could be that he comes to himself at this time of year – improved form came from September onwards last season – but hard to fancy in current form.
Terre Du Vent – capable Listed performer but trip notes of “run flattened out” and “run petered out” on his last two starts hardly bode well for a stepup to this extreme distance.
Elyaadi – dour Irish stayer who will get every inch of the trip but looks short of the required class.
Maria Royal – talented and progressive filly last season. Looked short of fitness on seasonal debut and ranbetter than the finishing position in strange race (Group 1) lasttime out. Looks a thorough stayer but may need soft ground to show her best.
Verdict: Not a race to get too carried away with. A chance is taken on TRES ROCK DANON, who hasn’t been seen at his best in steadily-run races the last twice, but looks asthough he will relish this 2m 4f distance.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 