JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP (R10, BEL, 5:46 ET)
(For previews of the other Super Saturday Belmont Stakes, as well as the Cotillion at Parx, and Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triompe from Longchamp, just scroll down)
#2 ICE BOX doesn’t appear fast enough at this stage of his career and I was never that big a fan. 20-1.
#3 RODMAN ran an incredible race three back, where he was getting the worst of things from a Flow perspective and still managed to run a huge number. That was over a one turn mile, however, and subsequent efforts going farther haven’t yielded results as good. I make him about an 8-1 chance to run back to that kind of race here.
#4 STAY THIRSTY struck a blow for sidekicks everywhere at Saratoga, sweeping the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1) and stepping out of Uncle Mo’s shadow in the process. If you believe his Saratoga form represents a new level of ability — and as a late season 3 year old, it probably should — he must be counted among the most likely winners here. the ML looks a hair short for me to take, but it’s not far off my reckoning. 9/5.
#5 DROSSELMEYER is a cool looking horse who I have always liked. But he has several things working against him, even if you’re willing to forgive the last as a failed turf experiment (which I am). He still looks too slow for the best of these, even on his good form, and Bill Mott said (to David Grening in Daily Racing Form) that he’s essentially prepping for the BC Marathon in this spot (as is Birdrun). I want to make him 10-1 on the win end, full of the knowledge that, plodder that he is, he could easily clunk along for second or third.
#6 A U MINER is taking a big step up in class and is another whose real target might just be the Marathon. I’m not convinced he’s fast enough to win at 10 furlongs 15-1.
Color me impessed. I wasn’t sure what to make of #1 FLAT OUT’s huge run in the Suburban, it was such a quantam leap forward off what he’d done in the past. But he’s backed it up with two more huge runs. Two big questions remain and they are interrelated 1) Does he have another big race in him? And 2) Can he produce it going farther than he has before? I know he shapes like the ground will help, not hurt, but that’s not the same thing as actually staying. On speed and form, he’s right in the conversation for most likely winner. 2-1.
#1A BIRDRUN is coupled with Flatout. Like Drosselmeyer, he appears to be prepping, but he’s run well at Belmont and has an on-the-board chance himself. He’d be double digits on his own but 2s as part of the entry.
STRATEGY: Once more into the chalk, I’m afraid. I’d feel pretty good about my chances if I were alive in this leg to STAY THIRSTY and FLAT OUT. Perhaps Rodman or Drosselmeyer can get second and make the exacta pay.
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 