TURF DISTAFF

TURF DISTAFF, 2:59 eastern

My biggest opinion of the two days runs in this race, and longtime readers of mine already know who she is. I’ve described her in the past as the heroine of the blog, the one who finally put us into profit after a tricky Saratoga meeting last year. But I won’t jump the gun. Let’s have a horse-by-horse look at this competitive field. Odds are computed to a 100% betting line.

#1 TAPITSFLY is a fast filly in good form but I do have to downgrade her last couple of effortd based on the easy set ups she received. The water is obviously much deeper here but I think she’s a contender at around 6-1.

#2 UPPERLINE will be the darling of topsheeters based on the gaudy figure from the Bayou. But looking deeper into that race, that number just looks high to me, and I’m not sure this one is good enough to hang with these in terms of class. She’s nice, and she can win, but I think she’s got about a 1 in 10 chance of winning so I’ll make her 10-1.

#3 ZAPPARITION has stepped up and run well at big odds before but I think this spot is just too tough to call her anything less than 30-1.

#4 ICE MAN and #5 VIVO PER LEI both just have too much to find in my book. 100-1 each.

#6 ARUNA is the tip. I was so impressed after her USA debut, where should won impressively despite adverse conditions, that I made a note in my Formulator Web, “The fig will be slow, don’t worry about it, future Grade 1 winner.” She’s done nothing wrong since, and perhaps best of all, multiple sources I trust implicitly have independently raved to me about how she’s doing. I have her at 3-1, and if that’s wrong it’s because it’s not low enough.

#7 FANTASIA is a terrific mare who ran a winning race last time and just caught one better — a scenario I could see repeating itself here. Her best races have come on firm, so if that’s the course condition that would only move her up (Damnit, Jim, I’m a handicapper, not a meterologist!). I make her about 6-1 in the race and can see saving with her.

#8 AVIATE was my Oaks pick last year, the Epsom Oaks that is. That didn’t work out, but to paraphrase the great UK propundit Nick Luck, Juddmonte have turned a lot of European base metal into American gold over the years. She sure doesn’t seem to like cut in the ground, so downgrade her in that eventuality, but she’s another potential saver. Call her 6-1.

#9 WILD MIA is a really cool filly with some decent form to the top pick from last season, bu it’s debatable as to how much she’s trained on. Exotics playrs could toss her in the wodest spreads but I am inclined to price her up around 20-1.

#10 KISS MINE is another who looks a cut below. 50-1.

#11 NEVER RETREAT ran a HUGE race in the Jenny Wiley last time, beating Fantasia, but today I have her a tick above that rival on the book.. Why? Never Retreat gets the worst of the draw, and also I could see that having been a peak effort she’ll back up from. This race could be too quick for both of them as well. All in all, still a chance at 8s.

STRATEGY: Simple one here, bet #6 ARUNA, and cheer her on as she charges down the Churchill stretch.