The Alysheba Stakes, 3:52 eastern time
#1 WISE DAN returns to his favorite track after the debacle at even money last time. The synth and layoff aren’t really excuses as he’d won under those conditions before. But I can look past them to see the other races in his form which are strong enough to win this. Two turns are new but given that his best figure came in his longest race, I can be convinced he’ll handle them. The ML seems really harsh to me, I make him 6-1.
When you look back at #2 CARACORTADO’s last dirt race, it’s important to note that there was a super speed favoring raceflow in there, so his triple digit fig is even better than it looks. He has run well at two turns on turf, so why not dirt? He’s another I give every chance. 5-1.
#3 ICABAD CRANE is a super tough, hard trying New York-bred and this is a smart spot to try him against open company to see where he stacks up. I could see using him on the win end if he’s enough of a price and is one to definitely play around with underneath in exotics. 20-1.
#4 EQUESTRIO’s claim to fame is his win over likely Derby fave Dialed In last time. But that was DI’s first time against elders — an underrated, overlooked, old-school handicapping angle — and it was earned with the benefit of a dawdling pace that played against DI’s strengths. In this spot, I make Equestrio a big longshot, 50-1.
#5 GIANT OAK returned to earth last time after his big win in the Donn. This feels a little short for him, but he’s run races good enough to win this, and perhaps the presence of some horses who may be better shorter means the race falls apart and sets up for him. I could also see him running out of ground. 6-1.
#6 MISSION IMPAZIBLE looks like one to take on to me, perfect trip last time and what looked like a peak effort. I have to call him a contender based on his excellent recent form, but no less than 6-1 in my book and you won’t see that.
#7 FIRST DUDE might well be my favorite looking horse in training, so big, powerful and cool. I haven’t seen him since he’s spent serious time with his new barn so I don’t know how he’s holding up looks-wise. Form wise I was glad to see him finally take the overdue step of winning his n1x, maybe get some of his mojo back in the process. If he takes another step forward today, it’s plausible but not certain that in his third start for Baffert he’ll be a handful. 6/1.
#8 JARDIM doesn’t look fast or classy enough. 100-1.
#9 AWESOME GEM’s form is hard to interpret but I’ve generally been pretty good with him. He’s a hard tryer and a super cool horse but I think he catches an A-field and at this point he’d look better against a C-field. A glory days run not out of the question, so I could see using for a penny but realistically he shoul be about 20-1.
#10 DEMARCATION scored a nice win two back before failing to fire when wide last time. Since I’m pretty much against Mission Impazible, I can safely side against him, too. 30-1.
#11 REGAL RANSOM presumably needed his last, when he ran OK sprinting. It’s a good sign that he actually showed interest in passing horses in that spot, in the past, he’s either gotten an easy lead or blown up.If he can rate a bit and tap into the best of his ability, he’s yet another who can win. 6-1.
STRATEGY: The line will be my guide here, though I may send further thoughts later via twitter, @loomsboldly
The Unbearable Lightness of Betting 